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How large do you predict the player base to be after one year?

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(@derek)
Eminent Member

What are your predictions? How many do you think will drop off after just a few months?

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Topic starter Posted : 26/05/2019 3:03 am
(@nenski)
Trusted Member

I would say 3 or 4 million a week after launch. Concurrent after a few months? Probably 2-2.5m.

Mark Kern's predictions are pretty accurate, he said about 2 million.

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Posted : 26/05/2019 3:12 am
(@derek)
Eminent Member

I would say 3 or 4 million a week after launch. Concurrent after a few months? Probably 2-2.5m.

Mark Kern's predictions are pretty accurate, he said about 2 million.

That's crazy, never thought it'd be that large of a number. Then again, vanilla was popular. It might also show how disappointed people are about the current state of WoW.

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Topic starter Posted : 26/05/2019 3:13 am
(@teebling)
Noble Member

I'm going with 5 million after launch, 2 million sustained after that.

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Posted : 26/05/2019 4:39 am
(@anonymous_1607109007)
Honorable Member

Larger than retail

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Posted : 26/05/2019 9:43 am
(@neofrag)
Eminent Member

  • After Launch: 6m

  • After 12 Months: 2.5m

  • But i think the 2.5 million player-base will be probably only consist of around 200k - 250k players that have their focus on classic-wow, the rest will be players that are "twinking" in classic but will focus the current wow.

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    Posted : 26/05/2019 10:55 am
    (@candletaker)
    Eminent Member

    Are we talking after all the content is released or starting from August? If its from August I would agree with Nenski's numbers, maybe just under 2m for concurrent.

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    Posted : 26/05/2019 7:14 pm
    (@marxman)
    Active Member

    Initial surge probably in the 4-5 million range. I suspect it'll be below 2 million after ~3 months, and probably settle in the 1-1.5 million range long-term. Vanilla isn't for everyone.

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    Posted : 26/05/2019 7:20 pm
    (@ironbrutzler)
    Reputable Member

    I think the break point for the most Hardcore People (people that play 25+ Hours a week) will be Phase 2 because if they are not into raiding they will have a hard time.
    But i think the biggest boost will come with the AQ Event and Naxx because they will affect Alts and twinks.

    On release the game will be bigger then Retail because retail is a ghost town on most Servers right now. I know that the next patch will bring people back but the hype around classic is big at the moment.

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    Posted : 26/05/2019 11:18 pm
    (@sudnep)
    Eminent Member

    I would imagine that it would be about 30-40% of it's initial population. Looking at OSRS as an example it appears their peak on release was around 70,000 players and reaching down to a low point of 12,000 which is 12% of it's initial maximum. I think WoW will have a lot more after it's initial release due to the already planned rolling content releases of Diremaul, MC, AQ, Naxx, etc... which should provide a decent longevity after the initial waves.

    Number wise I'd imagine it will start around 6m and end up being 2.1m.

    OSRS Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/7hdqsj/osrs_timeline_with_playercount/

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    Posted : 27/05/2019 3:13 pm
     Gio
    (@gio)
    New Member

    Less than 10% starting players will be still playing.

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 7:38 am
     Nyxt
    (@nyxt)
    Reputable Member

    I think it will be much bigger than people think it will be.
    I feel alot of people will come out of the wood works to play this game.

    It was popular for a reason and one of the most addicting games ever made.
    Many of my friends that havent played wow since wrath are coming back.
    So yeah 2 - 5 million, its a big range but idk

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 7:49 am
    (@daisykutter)
    Estimable Member

  • Initial release: 3 million.
  • After 12 months: 1 million.
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    Posted : 20/06/2019 7:57 am
    (@rinkusan)
    Estimable Member

  • Initial release: 3 million.
  • After 12 months: 1 million.
  • I can agree to that.

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 8:26 am
    (@raven)
    Estimable Member

    5m release
    200k-500k when hype dies imo

    Classic will have a lot of "nothing left to do" players quitting because that's what retail has trained their attitude to be

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 9:23 am
    (@daisykutter)
    Estimable Member

    The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 10:20 am
     Nyxt
    (@nyxt)
    Reputable Member

    The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public

    Or lump together both classic and retail numbers to show how good they are doing lol

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 10:23 am
    (@raven)
    Estimable Member

    There's ways to find out, for example someone worked out BFA had only 3.5m players a few months ago.

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 10:25 am
    (@stfuppercut)
    Noble Member

    The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public

    We have analytics. We can use twitch viewership, search histories, addon downloads, etc etc etc. None of these sources work as a perfect number but they can all shed some insight into the popularity of the game. This is especially true when comparing two products, for example retail and Classic.

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 4:19 pm
    Selexin
    (@selexin)
    Prominent Member

    The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public

    We have analytics. We can use twitch viewership, search histories, addon downloads, etc etc etc. None of these sources work as a perfect number but they can all shed some insight into the popularity of the game. This is especially true when comparing two products, for example retail and Classic.

    Exactly, I think Blizzard will definitely keep their mouths shut, or just announce 'active subscriptions' rather than saying exactly who is playing retail vs. classic vs. both. I think Classic will bring in more subscribers than retail, until of course they do something drastic/big with retail to get everyone interested again.

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    Posted : 20/06/2019 4:51 pm
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